How computers can replicate (but not replace) scientists...

Strong Artificial Intelligence formed a large part of my doctoral research - yes, I've heard most of the jokes about being an 'artificially intelligent' doctor... And, the good news is that most of them are true! ha ha!

I proposed a hypothesis, among other things, based on a mathematical model for the exponential growth of representational and emulative intelligence in machines (showing an exponential increase in computing capacity from data retention, to information processing, to knowledge management, and then to intelligence and finally sentience). In order for this to take place Moore's law would need to be exceeded (which has happened), and we would need to harness the accuracy and computational power of artificially intelligent machines to create even more intricate and powerful machines (much to complicated for a human person to create in the limited space of our lives, and with the clumsiness of our knowledge and skill). These are likely to be quantum computers, or possibly some form of enzyme based biomechanical machines...

The long and the short of it was that we could see the rise of truly intelligent machines by as early as 2029 (as per Ray Kurzweil's suggestion).

Well, some of this is already taking place in credible scientific research. Simply linear (and some more complex parallel) emulative processes are already being reproduced using super computers. However, as this post below suggests, whilst computers can perform comparative tasks between existing models, they are not yet at the place where they can fathom the creative mustre to develop new models by themselves... But, who knows, that may not be too far off! All that we need is to find some realiable self agregating code that gathers knowledge, tests it through a simple Turing test (in comparrision to other valid data - of course both of these processes are already possible), and then agregates and adjusts its code base for increasing accuracy and complexity. If a machine can do this faster and more accurately than a human person it may just be able to develop more stringent and previously unfathomed models of knowledge and perhaps even wisdom!

But for now, here's what is possible:

In his first column for Seed magazine, my Institute for the Future colleague and pal Alex Pang looks at efforts to create software that doesn't just support scientific discovery, it actually does new science. From Seed:

Older AI projects in scientific discovery tried to model the way scientists think. This approach doesn’t try to imitate an individual scientist’s cognitive processes — you don’t need intuition when you have processor cycles to burn — but it bears an interesting similarity to the way scientific communities work. (Cornell professor Hod) Lipson says it figures out what to look at next “based on disagreement between models, just as a scientist will design an experiment that tests predictions made by competing theories.”

But that doesn’t mean it will replace scientists. (Cornell graduate student Michael) Schmidt views it as a tool to see what they can’t: “Something that is not obvious to a human might be obvious to a computer,” he speculates. A program, says Schmidt, may find things “that look really strange and foreign” to a scientist. More fundamentally, the Cornell program can analyze data, build models, and even guess which theories are more powerful, but it can’t explain what its theories mean — and new theories often force scientists to rethink and refine basic assumptions. “E=mc2 looks very simple, but it actually encapsulates a lot of knowledge,” Lipson says. “It overturned a lot of older preconceptions about energy and the speed of light.” Even as computers get better at formulating theories, “you need humans to give meaning to what the system finds.”

Why We're Not Obsolete: Alex Pang in Seed

From boingboing

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I would be interested to hear your thoughts. Do you think that sentient machines could be a threat to humanity? I once postulated that perhaps the extinction of the human race was part of God's evolutionary plan for the redemption of the cosmos... It would seem that humanity has two radical problems. First, we have a tendancy to displace God from the centre of the universe (so much popular theology goes around humanity, the needs and will of humans and the actualisation of human desire)... Surely that can not be right!? Second, humans are clearly a destructive force in the greater scheme of cosmic reality. We fight, we consume, we destroy and generally seem to be quite bad for the cosmic ecosystem.

Of course the converse argument is that the Gospels show that Jesus died for BOTH humans and the cosmos... But, I could be wrong (or right)! What do you think?

Absolute perfection!

So, today I went back to the University of Stellenbosch's business school for some more classes towards my SMDP. I enjoy being a student again.

However, I have been deeply challenged by a comment that a friend of mine, Alan Storey, made at a lecture I gave two weeks ago. I was speaking about the lack of membership statistics for Methodist Churches in SA when he asked why we needed them so much? He went on to say (as I've shared elsewhere on this blog) that sometimes we want figures so that we can try to 'manage' and 'control' things that are not realy measurable (for example how could I Church with more members be deemed more successful than a small community in which a marriage is healed, or a bereaved widow finds new meaning in life... Such things cannot be quantified).

I love what I am learning at the business school - it is an entirely new, and so quite exciting. But there have been elements of 'positivism', 'determinism', 'reductionism' to the course that have been quite unsettling. Business strives for a certain kind of perfection... I can't quite put my finger on it. But it is almost the kind of perfection that meets the approval of the masses - what is best for the majority must be right for all (increasing marketshare, surveying customer satisfaction, probing trends etc.)

However, in my life I have experienced a different kind of beauty and perfection. It is the perfection of uniqueness, of being special because you're not exactly the same as everyone else... I find this in my little mircale boy Liam. Liam was born 3 months premature and so has a few health and developmental concerns. I have given up answering honestly to the question ' how is Liam doing?' Even when he is ill, as he was this last week, he is as close to perfect as I could ever have hoped for! His little limp and his 'special' left hand that we encourage him to use as much as his 'normal' right hand are absolutely perfect - he may not be perfect in the business sense, or in comparisson to others of his age, but then neither am I! I have never quite fit the small space that society has shaped for me...

However, what I can say with all of my heart is that Liam is perfect, absolutely perfect! He is perfect in God's eyes, and he perfectly fills my WHOLE heart! There is no sense in that. It cannot be measured or adequitely compared. I cannot even explain it... All that I know is that I experience it to be true...

And, I continue to praise and thank God for God's goodness and grace. It is perfect grace for imperfect people like me.
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Inspiriation, courage, and Biblical encouragement during times of financial crisis

My friend Dr. Wessel Bentley has just released his new book - 28 Days of Prayer during Financial Crisis.

I had the wonderful privelage of reading through his manuscript before it was published. Friends, this is a book that will offer a great deal of inspiration, encouragement, and sound advice from the Christian scriptures. What is particularly encouraging in this book is that it is not simplisitic, it certainly is not another 'prosperity' book, and it comes from someone who has lived through some challenging times himself!

You can order Wessel's book here.

Here's a little piece from Wessel himself.

Dear Friends

I am happy to announce that my new book "28 Days of Prayer during financial crisis" is in print and available from Africa Upper Room Ministries.

What is this book about? Well, first I need to make it explicitly clear that this is NOT a Prosperity Theology book. It is a resource providing a 4-week journey in recognizing God's presence, even during global financial crisis. It offers some points for consideration on how we view ministry, management of what is at our disposal and, most of all, the ability to speak honestly to God about that which creates fear and anxiety in our lives. I have incorporated much of what John Wesley said about money and trust that this will provide encouragement for the road ahead. Order forms can be downloaded from the sidebar to the right.

God bless.

Rich blessings with this one Wes! I pray that it will touch and bless many people!

A source of joy and relaxation!

Let me introduce you (formally) to my mountain bike, 'The Canaanite' - it is a Mongoose Canaan Comp. I've owned it for a few months now and love spending time riding in the mountains around my home - it clears my head, gets me fit, and helps me to cope with stress!

Yesterday I did a 30km ride on Lourensdord and Vergelegen Farms (about 500 metres from where I live). It was fantastic! I wish I had more time to enjoy the outdoors, but I had to work. And, of course, there is also the joy of spending time with my family)....

So internets, meet Canaan, Canaan, meet the people of the internets... They're nice people you know!
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Happy Mother's day from Paradise!

First, a blessed mother's day to my mom, and to Megie my wonderful wife!

Courtney was on a Girl Guide camp at 'Mooihawens', so after I finished preaching at the early serive at Coronation Ave we drove out to collect her. It must be one of the most magnificent drives in the world! It is along the coastline.

This photo was taken at Kogel Bay (pronounced 'Cool Bay') which is a surfer's haven just 20 minutes from our home. It's a perfect day here today! We're going out for lunch in a little while.
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An emerging Church conversation with Rev Steven Lottering

My journey into the 'emerging conversation' continues! Yesterday I had the great joy of recording an episode for my show, The Ministry and Me (on Radio Pulpit) with Rev Steven Lottering.

Steven is a good friend, and the pastor of the Methodist Church congregation where my family and I worship - Coronation Ave Methodist Church in Somerset West.

Steven has a very balanced and informed perspective on the emerging conversation - it is balanced by the fact that he is a pastor of a healthy Church, and informed by his searching to find ways to effectively engage more than just the members of his congregation! He always seems to have an eye on the world around him to see how the Church can serve society.

It was great to be with Steven. The lead broadcast of this episode will be aired on Radio Pulpit on Wednesday 13 May 2009 at 9.00 (CAT).

You can catch a sneak preview of the show here: 'Is the Church dying or simply changing? A conversation on the Emerging Church with Rev Steven Lottering' (6MB MP3).

If you've found the program useful, please do drop me a line, and please cast a vote for it here.

Rich blessing!

Dion

For a few more posts (audio, video and a paper I delivered in the UK, please click here).

Technorati tags: emergent conversation, emergent Church, mainline Church decline, statistics on Church membership, emerging Church, Orthodox

When God's grace breaks through...

Today was another one of those days in which I experienced a deep sense of awakening to God's grace.

Let me start with a brief explanation of two concepts that will help you to understand my approach to faith and life in Christ better. In a very basic sense theology shows two approaches to consciousness of God.

There is the perenialist approach which can be likened to a river bed - in some seasons the river does not have water flowing between its banks. The banks are visible and the evidence of water having flowed there is visible, yet the water table has dropped and so the water itself is presnt beneath the surface, perhaps bubling through in a spring here and there, but to a large extent it remains hidden from view. My experience of God's grace is like this in many senses - I know God is present and active, the evidence is there, but perhaps I am not perceptive enough to see God clearly at work beneath the surface of my everyday life. However, every now and then God's grace breaks through and bring real life.

The other broad approach to God consciousness is called the constructivist approach. The approach is much more deductive than inductive - in other words, one constructs the experience of God's present grace by creating some kind of framework, schema or discipline. This is what prayer, Bible study, Sunday worship, fasting, acts of mercy and a host of other spiritual disciplines allow us to do. We facilitate an awareness of God's active presence by means of certain constructions of meaning.

I often rely on the constructivist approach to faith and spirituality to find and make meaning within the mundane and necessary tasks of my daily life. I pray frequently and in a disciplined manner, I give sacrificialy of my income, I fast weekly (and am currently on a 40 day partial fast - only eating one meal a day for 40 days). These things make me conscious of God, of others, and of myself. For example, for the last 10 days I have only eaten on meal a day. It reminds me that there are many persons who do not eat at all, that there are some who can only eat once a day, and that I far too frequently eat food for the wrong reasons - consuming much more than I need in a world where some have none. This simple act shapes my daily life, it fills me with compassion and it drives me to action. So, in response to my hunger I pray, I strategise to ensure that I find ways to feed as many hungry people as I can, and I gain control over something that can so easily control me.

All of this came home is a particularly significant way today! One of the joys of being conscious is that it gives one freedom! I have the freedom to look for God wherever God is present. I look for God in meetings, in times of conflict, in situations of stress, in creative engagements, and among diverse and different people. I found God in the talk that Eddie Andrews (the Western Province and Springbok Rugby player) gave at our office worship today. I found God at 'the Ark city of refuge' where our trust is helping to fund food, education and rehab. I found God in my family. I even find God in the posts to this blog.

And, at the end of the day I am grateful that God is active, present, and can be found. It just take a little bit of intention and some simple discipline for the miracle of God's grace to break through!

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Back to business school - value added return on equity...

In just over a week I go back to Stellenbosch business school for the second week of the Senior Management Diploma program.

I enjoyed the week tremendously! I gained so much insight into what it takes to manage one's resources in order to gain the best possible returns for what you invest (whether that be your time, your money, or the skills and creativity of others). I also came to realise that ministries, and charities could benefit with some help in order to get the best possible results from the gifts of time and money that people put into them. I've frequently thought how differently I would manage my Church's resources, and of course the resources of the seminary (if I were to be back in either of those ministries). After all, at the end of the day the desire to see the world transformed is a task that requires commitment, care and hard work!

I have applied a number of the principles that I was exposed to in the strategic management and financial management components to help our two trusts to be more disciplined and effective in working with the precious funding we have to address the many needs in our community. We are already starting to see a greater impact on our capacity to help more people, and transform more lives as a result.

It was this humerous image below that got me thinking about working with what you have in order to get the best possible return going forward!

The Mt Holly Mayor and his friend made some signs for a fellow named Ed who is out of work. Ed says the signs are working!

My pal, and frequent Mt. Holly tourist, Todd Norem (noremipsum.com) created these media appropriate and proven effective outdoor boards for his client Ed who reported at least a 800% increase in gross income on days his media ran.

See other signs at the link. Pan Handling Competition is Running Hot in Minneapolis

The original post comes from boingboing.

What do you think... Is there a ANY place for business principles in ministry? I know that the converse is also true! At a workshop with my friends Steven Lotering and Alan Storey last week I was reminded that NOT everything needs to be measured and quantified! Some of the most significant gains in the Kingdom of God can not be put into numbers... Alan also reminded me that sometimes we try to quantify things because we want to 'manage' and 'control' them to our own ends... I was challenged by these thoughts... But, at the same time I have seen so many Churches and ministries that are so much less than effective because they lack leadership, good management and some simple policies and procedures!

I'd love to hear your thoughts (and particilarly those who came into ministry from a business background).

A cynic's view of Europe - Maps from a different perspective!

Ever since my friend Alan Storey helped to open my eyes to the distortion of geography that we have lived with for centuries I have loved looking at 'alternative' representations of the world. I say that our maps are distorted, because as you'll see in this post of mine they are shaped by political and economic powers, rather then true geographic land mass.

Anyway, this was a rather cynical, yet thought provoking perspective on Europe.... it comes from boingboing...

ArtWerk drew this map of Europe, titled "Where I Live." Be sure to read the lively debate over at Flickr, both in the annotated notes and the comments.

A perfect day in my 'back yard'!

In the 5 years we lived in Pretoria, Megie and I wished that we could spend a Sunday afternoon chilling on the beach. Well, that wish has been granted since moving back to the Cape! Days like these are a gift! There is almost now wind, very few clouds, and very few people at the beach...

After seeing Gwen & Rhys off to the airport we did a little work and then bought the kids to the beach for a bit of a run around and relaxation...

Great times!

PS. This photo is taken from the surfer section of Strand beach towards Gordon's bay in the distance.
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The blessing of family!

Megie's sister, Gwen, her husban Rhys and their little boy Christopher are visiting with us this week. It is so great to be with them! I have realised just how much we miss having family close by since moving back to Cape Town.

Today we came for a bite of lunch just up the road from our home, at 'Nice' on the Stellenbosch road. It is cold and wet outside, but the fireplace in here is wonderful and warm!

Yesterday was an amzing day as well. It rained cats and dogs for most of the day. When there was a gap in the clouds (at about 2pm) I decided to go for a ride on my mountain bike. I rode up Silverboom Kloof road to the top of the Heldeberg, at the top I found an incredible dirt trail and rode around on the Helderberg Mountain for about 2 hours (in the POURING rain!!!) it was slippery, muddy, and just incredible! Man, I love where we live! When I got home my lungs were burning, my legs were numb and all the stress of the last week was gone!

This morning I went with my friend Graham Power to choose a mountain bike for himself. He has a larger budget than I do, so it was great to help him buy the bike I would love to own! I can't wait for him to get his bike - he has a great farm in the Karoo where we can go ride, and he is also well connected with a number of the wine farmers in our area, so we should be able to ride on some of the farms that aren't normally open to mountain bikes.

Well, the long weekend is almost over! The next month is incredibly pressed (I'll be in JHB a few times, back to Hong Kong and Mainland China, and then to Korea as well). So, I am enjoying this free time! It allows my spirit to catch up with my body and mind!
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The best cricket ground in the world! IPL at Newlands

We got tickets to watch the IPL match at Newlands this afternoon. The weather is perfect in Cape Town today, the setting is second none! I'm sure the cricket is going to be just as good!
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